When it comes to buying or selling a home there are many factors you should consider. Where you want to live, why you want to buy or sell, and who will help you along your journey are just some of those factors. When it comes to today’s real estate market, though, the top two factors to consider are what’s happening with interest rates & inventory.
Interest Rates
Mortgage interest rates have been on the rise and are now over three-quarters of a percentage point higher than they were at the beginning of the year. According to Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, rates climbed to 4.72% for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage last week.
The interest rate you secure when buying a home not only greatly impacts your monthly housing costs, but also impacts your purchasing power.
Purchasing power, simply put, is the amount of home you can afford to buy for the budget you have available to spend. As rates increase, the price of the house you can afford to buy will decrease if you plan to stay within a certain monthly housing budget.
The chart below shows the impact that rising interest rates would have if you planned to purchase a $400,000 home while keeping your principal and interest payments between $2,020-$2,050 a month.
With each quarter of a percent increase in interest rate, the value of the home you can afford decreases by 2.5% (in this example, $10,000). Experts predict that mortgage rates will be over 5% by this time next year.
Inventory
A ‘normal’ real estate market requires there to be a 6-month supply of homes for sale in order for prices to increase only with inflation. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), listing inventory is currently at a 4.3-month supply (still well below the 6-months needed), which has put upward pressure on home prices. Home prices have increased year-over-year for the last 78 straight months.
The inventory of homes for sale in the real estate market had been on a steady decline and experienced year-over-year drops for 36 straight months (from July 2015 to May 2018), but we are starting to see a shift in inventory over the last three months.
The chart below shows the change in housing supply over the last 12 months compared to the previous 12 months. As you can see, in June, July, and August, inventory levels have started to increase as compared to the same time last year.
This is a trend to watch as we move further into the fall and winter months. If we continue to see an increase in homes for sale, we could start moving further away from a seller’s market and closer to a normal market.
Bottom Line
If you are planning to enter the housing market, either as a buyer or a seller, let’s get together to discuss the changes in mortgage interest rates and inventory and what they could mean for you.
Source: Keeping Current Matters
Hi, I am Chrysti. I am a Fair Oaks based REALTOR® and Real Estate Advisor who believes real estate works best when it feels human, calm, and supported. If you like a big sister energy kind of guide, you and I will get along just fine.
I have lived in the Sacramento and Placer foothill communities for more than three decades, and I care deeply about the people and stories here. I created I Love Fair Oaks because this town has a heartbeat, and I wanted a place to celebrate it. That work spills naturally into real estate because helping people move through life with clarity and confidence is what I love most.
My background includes real estate, mortgages, title, photography, design, and marketing. All of that helps me protect my clients and make the process feel as smooth as possible. When things get confusing, I explain. When things get stressful, I steady the room. When you need someone in your corner, I am right there with you.
I serve Fair Oaks, Orangevale, Carmichael, Gold River, Folsom, Granite Bay, Roseville, Rocklin, and the foothill communities that surround them. If you are planning a move or exploring what is next, I am here to help you find your way.
Contact916 320 2663c@chrystitovani.comCA DRE 01118449eXp Realty of California
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